Saint John's on the cusp of a boom
Will we soon call city energy hub of N.B.
Dramatic growth in Saint John, and indeed the entire province, is no longer just a prediction. It's real, and it's happening now. Thousands are bracing for the impacts of the energy boom, while policy makers, government officials and private companies try to anticipate the growing pains. Members of Benefits Blueprint, a broad-based community initiative, say that boom will create 33,000 jobs and inject more than $44 billion into the provincial economy.
Already, the environmental impact assessment process is moving ahead for a second oil refinery in Red Head, the sod's been turned for a new potash mine in Sussex, the refurbishment of Point Lepreau nuclear generating station is well underway, and there's a possibility of a second nuclear reactor at Point Lepreau. Add to that the liquefied natural gas terminal in Saint John and a 125-kilometre LNG pipeline.
"The first thing we need to do is understand the magnitude of the onslaught, because it may not be an onslaught," said Jim Baird, Commissioner of Planning for the City of Saint John. "It may be a slow consistent ramping up of new housing opportunities, new employment opportunities, new industrial opportunities."
Enterprise Saint John and other community stakeholders are taking action to ensure the community reaps the most benefit by coming up with the new initiative, Benefits Blueprint.
"These potential mega projects present enormous challenges," said Energy Minister Jack Kier. "This is a wonderful opportunity for not only the federal and provincial governments, but also the business sector, to get involved in a report that helps with the expansion that's going to occur to make sure everybody gets an opportunity." The initiative recommends building business capacity, workforce attraction, retention and participation initiatives, enhanced social programs among at-risk communities, youth programs, education programs, infrastructure improvements, environmental sustainability projects and additional arts and culture facilities.
Mayor Norm McFarlane said the city should take a very active role in the Benefits Blueprint and wants to see senior staff sitting on the committee to keep council up to date on a regular basis. "This boom is going to be huge for the province, but it's going to be really huge for Saint John."
Bob Manning, chairman of Enterprise Saint John and the Benefits Blueprint project, said we've already seen growth in property values and increased home construction. In fact, The RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook for 2008 shows Saint John is among a few major markets in the country expected to exceed record sales levels set in 2007. Not only will the city buck the trend, it will see housing prices jump by as much as seven per cent.
This is good for some, bad for others. Those earning lower incomes may experience the strain on affordable, quality housing. Saint John already has one of the highest poverty rates in Canada, with an estimated 200 homeless. However, Baird believes it won't be an absolute housing shortage. Despite expected price increases, he said, there should be plenty of space for new workers.
"The capacity they have been talking about for new housing needs is within the capability of the industry to produce." The number of workers coming to the city will be higher during the construction phase, but McFarlane said he doesn't want to see small villages of trailers set up to accommodate them. "I want permanent housing."
McFarlane said the city needs to plan future housing projects that involve public-private partnerships as was the case when the Leinster Court Complex was built recently.
"This is an example of subsidized and non-subsidized, that's what we need to do to hold workers that will come here." There will also be a serious need for changes to the city's infrastructure. That means everything from new traffic lights, to pipelines, to more clean drinking water. "Infrastructure changes will depend on the type of industry that comes," Baird said. "From a city perspective a second nuclear reactor at Point Lepreau won't have a huge impact, whereas if you start getting manufacturing operations that are developing within the city they're looking for industrial land and water...There's going to be a major challenge in the next 10 to 15 years securing safe, clean drinking water."
One of the most important tasks in preparing for the boom is finding workers to fill those 33,000 jobs. "I think there are three areas we really need to take a look at: Immigration, repatriation and training our kids," said Kier.
"We're going to have to bring folks back home to New Brunswick that are working elsewhere and we're going to have to train the kids coming out of high school that want to take a trade. We're going to have to train them right now to make sure that they're going to be prepared." The Saint John Board of Trade isn't so confident that's going to happen. President Imelda Gilman called the recent provincial budget a big disappointment because of its lack of investment in the workforce or post-secondary training.
"The government is waiting for reports later this year. So, basically what this means is we're going to have to wait another year until the next budget before we're going to see anything," she said. "We don't have that amount of time. We got to be working on these types of issues now." Meanwhile, the city has already led the nation in job growth over the last three months. The RBC Canadian City Trends report shows Saint John's job growth reached 9.5 per cent. This compounded by growth in nearly every sector of the economy has some theorizing about a looming boom-bust situation.
The number of construction jobs will be higher than the number of permanent jobs once the major projects are up and running. This means the initial wealth won't be sustained, resulting in a deflation of the economy. Baird said this is no worry so long as people are prepared for it.
"We cannot over extend ourselves in terms of thinking that the level of economic activity or employment activity in the construction phase is necessarily what we can expect in the long term." Not everyone is optimistic about the "Energy Hub" concept and the boom of major energy projects. The Conservation Council of New Brunswick along with the Clean Air Coalition are concerned more industry means more pollution, and in turn that means more health problems and a decrease in quality of life.
The Energy Minister insists all projects will be subject to stringent environmental impact assessments, and city planners say these will be new projects using state of the art pollution control equipment. "We will ensure what is being done is done in a safe and appropriate manner," said Baird. That is hotly debated among environmentalists.
Mayor McFarlane wants to ensure energy projects aren't the only promising ventures on the horizon. "With the energy boom that's coming we should be able to attract so many other things," he said. "You can't rest back on your laurels and know that energy [projects] are going to be there, because that's an easy job for a mayor. What we need to do is really focus on other things that need to be done in the city such as young entrepreneurial spirit, tourism, and health sciences." Several organizations in the city are doing just that. The Saint John Waterfront Development Partnership, Enterprise Saint John and Uptown Saint John are spearheading development in the Uptown core. They are taking the opportunity to see growth in social, economic and cultural development.
"All of a sudden there seems to be this very focused interest on the development of arts, culture and heritage," said Bernard Cormier, Cultural Affairs Officer for the City of Saint John. "I think now people are finally coming to realize that if you develop your city in a creative sense then the economy and all the other things will fall into place."
"We have to make sure we look at everything that will make us prosper in the next 50 years in Saint John," said McFarlane. New Brunswick is embarking on very exciting times.
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